S&P 500 Profit Slump Extends into Sixth Quarter - Capstone financing

S&P 500 Profit Slump Extends into Sixth Quarter

09:53 16 September in Blog

Expectations are falling, and the idea that the third quarter would mark the return to growth for U.S. companies has fallen flat. Companies in the S&P 500 will report earnings in the coming weeks, and the expectation is that they will once again report declines. The current slump of 6 consecutive quarters of shrinking earnings is the longest since FactSet began tracking the date in 2008 – leading many in the market to wonder how long stocks can rise while corporate earnings continue to fall.

Some Improvements, but Not Enough

Two factors – failing oil prices and a strengthening dollar – that have hurt corporate earnings in recent years have subsides in 2016, yet the recession in earnings continues. Despite the slight uptick in oil prices, the energy sector is expected to report the largest year-over-year decline in earnings of all S&P 500 sectors – a whopping 66% drop.

Stock Prices & Earnings: The Disconnect

Although earnings have dropped steadily, stocks have remained on a near-unprecedented bull run. This oxymoron can be explained by revised expectations: by lowering earning expectations shortly before they are released, analysts give companies a better chance to beat expectations. Investor confidence rises, money flows in, and the stock price continues to rise, even though the company did not really outperform expectations. Another factor that has kept this atypical bull run on track is the (in)activity of the central bank, which has not carried out any of the four planned interest rate hikes that were scheduled for this year.

Market Explanation

Faced with a situation where the entire market — not indices and individual stocks – is overpriced, many investors now point to quarter four as the turning point. They point to the fact that the market is hovering near all-time highs as evidence that a resumption of earnings growth is right around the corner.

Accelerate Your Working Capital with Capstone

For qualified clients, Capstone provides Purchase order factoring, single invoice factoring and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. Please visit our homepage or contact us directly for more information.

Number One Threat to Long-Term Economic Growth - Explained by Capstone

This is the Number One Threat to Long-Term Economic Growth

12:10 07 August in Blog

Amid positive job reports and a surging stock market, one factor still presents a major obstacle to long-term economic growth in the US: a persistent slackening of productivity. We are currently in the midsts of the longest downward slide in worker productivity since the 1970’s, an unfortunate asterisk that should accompany the latest round of job reports. It’s also likely to keep the Fed from raising interest rates any time in the near future.

Productivity by the Numbers

Productivity — the measure of what goods and services a worker produces each hour on the job — fell 0.5% at a seasonally adjusted rate during the second quarter, according to the Labor Department. That marks the third consecutive quarterly drop in productivity, the longest streak since 1979. What’s worse, the trend shows few signs of abating; productivity growth rang in at just 1.7% from 2007 to 2015, half that of 2000 through 2007.

Why Worker Productivity Matters

For business owners, the importance of worker productivity can’t be understated. The equation is simple: less productivity means more expenses and less profit. On a macro level, productivity is a key gauge in measuring wage growth, prices, and overall economic output — which have all been falling as well.

What’s Killing Productivity?

According to numerous studies, lagging productivity has several culprits. Among the most important are businesses unwillingness to invest in new equipment, machinery, and equipment — the raw materials that translate directly into job growth, wage growth, and gains in worker efficiency and productivity. While the exact cause of lagging productivity is difficult to nail down, it’s worth noting that fixed nonresidential investment, the meat and potatoes of business spending, has also dropped the last three quarters along with productivity.

That lack of investment has lead to a decline in new orders for nondefense capital goods on a year-over-year basis for much of the last year and a half.

What’s the Solution?

As we mentioned in our most recent blog, the majority of US manufacturers are small businesses — and many find themselves sorely lacking the working capital needed to invest in their businesses, jump-start productivity, create backlogs, and grow. As a low-risk remedy, manufacturers and other small businesses with strong demand for their products use invoice factoring to boost their cash flow. That’s where Capstone can help!

Grow Your Business with Capstone

For qualified clients, Capstone provides purchase order factoring, single invoice and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. Please visit our homepage or contact us directly for more information.

Stake for Small Business Owners this Election Season

What’s at Stake for Small Business Owners this Election Season

19:40 29 June in Blog

Stake for Small Business Owners this Election SeasonU.S. presidential elections are a marathon, not a sprint, and this race has been exceptionally grueling—both for the candidates and the public at large. But more concerned than the average U.S. citizen are small business owners, who have responded to the uncertainty by delaying new hires, forgoing new equipment orders, and avoiding all but the most essential investments. We’ll tell you why confidence is slipping and what small businesses can do to buck the trend.

An Unprecedented Election Season?

Every presidential election captures the nation’s attention, but this year’s race seems to have no precedent. Whereas most Americans tune into the race after the primaries are over and the Republicans and Democrats have chosen their respective nominees, both parties saw unconventional candidates challenge the status quo during the primaries and capture the attention—and votes—of millions. Now that the primaries are over and Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are set to face off in the general election, the future and the direction we’re heading remains as unclear as ever.

Small Business Owners Uncertain

According to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal and Vistage Worldwide Inc, one-third of business owners report that uncertainty over the coming election is negatively impacting their business.

Though small business owners are responding in different ways, the overarching theme is this: they have opportunities to grow their businesses, but they’re hesitant to spend the money. It’s not just the election causing concerns—there’s also global concerns, like the recent exit of the U.K. from the European Union, which threw global markets into a brief tailspin and the tenuous state of the Chinese economy. Closer to home, there’s also uncertainty over the timing and impact of future interest rate hikes.

Small-Business Confidence, by the Numbers

Given the picture we’ve just painted, it’s no surprise that small-business confidence fell to its lowest level since November of 2012 this month. Even industries that consider themselves ‘immune’ to political drama, like real estate, construction and development, are seeing activity dwindle. In the end, small businesses off all types face higher cost of capital than their larger counterparts, and that’s why they bear the lion’s share of the burden when uncertainty prevails and consumers reduce spending.

Luckily, there are several tools that small businesses can use to seize opportunities for growth—regardless of the prevailing political and economic climate.

Capstone Helps Small Businesses Boost Working Capital and Grow

For qualified clients, Capstone provides purchase order factoring, single invoice factoring, and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. Please visit our homepage or contact us directly for more information.

How to Grow Business in an Unnatural Economy - Capstone

How to Grow Business in an Unnatural Economy

21:58 15 June in Blog

How to Grow Business in an Unnatural EconomyStalled growth, disappearing jobs and a sense of foreboding are the defining characteristics of today’s economy. So, what or who is to blame? According to one theorist, the process of “creative destructions,” whereby the death of one business or industry gives rise to another, is failing. We’ll tell you why it’s happening and show you how Capstone’s single invoice and full-contract factoring allow businesses to grow along with demand, avoid taking on additional debt, and improve their balance sheets organically—even in an economy stuck in limbo.

The Numbers

A sobering job report released earlier this month showed the creation of only 38,000 new jobs —124,000 fewer than had been predicted — which is the lowest monthly total since September 2010. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 94,708 Americans were not participating in the labor force during the month of May, bringing the participation rate to 62.6%.

A Limited Recovery

There’s no doubt that we’ve recovered from the Great Recession. The stock market has been on a 7-year bull run—although it has been tested recently. If you’ve tuned into the rhetoric coming out of the presidential race, you’ve heard the conviction that the recovery has been rather one-sided—that the gains of the last 7 years have benefitted a select few while the majority of the population has been left on the sidelines. No matter where you stand politically, the notion of a limited recovery seems to be supported by an analysis of Census Bureau data.

A Tale of Two Counties

According to the Census Bureau, the net increase of new business establishments is just 2.3% since 2010. Compare that with a 6.7% net increase during the 1990 recovery and a 5.6% net increase during the 2000 recovery. What’s worse—over half of the 166,000 new businesses formed in the United States since 2010 are located in just 20 counties. In short, a select few geographic areas are prospering, and the rest of the country is losing businesses and losing jobs at an alarming rate.

Aggressive Oversight and Misplaced Regulation

Touted as the culprits of the financial crash, banks and financial institutions, the drivers of growth since time immemorial, have been forced to tighten their lending requirements. The unintended consequence, of course, is that businesses’ traditional sources of credit have dried up. An enduring irony of the Dodd-Frank Act, which among other things was designed to limit the size of financial institutions, is that its burdensome requirements have actually forced many small community banks out of business—making the Big Banks BIGGER, not smaller.

If a lack of funding weren’t bad enough, businesses are now contending with rising federal regulatory compliance costs and state licensing requirements. And here the bitter irony continues. The new wave of regulations have disproportionally harmed small businesses—the symbol of the American Dream and American industriousness—not the large corporations the regulations were meant to control. A report ordered by the U.S. Small Business Administration found that the per-employee cost of federal regulatory compliance was $10,585 for companies with 19 or fewer employees. Companies with 500 or more employees, by contrast, paid an average of $7,755 per employee to stay compliant. Added to compliance costs are a rapidly multiplying number of state and local licensing requirements. 5% of employees required certificates or licenses in 1950. Today, the number stands at 30%.

A Metaphor for our Economic Ecosystem

There are many apt metaphors that describe what’s happening to the U.S. economy, but one of our favorites has to do with Smoky the Bear and forest fire prevention. Forest fires aren’t pretty, but they’re a natural and necessary phenomenon. They clear away the old, dead wood and give new generations of plants the space they need to grow. If the old, dead wood remains propped up for too long, the ecosystem ends up with less growth, less diversity, and a few individuals soaking up all the sunlight. And when a fire does finally come along, it’s much bigger and more destructive than it ever needed to be.

Boost Working Capital with Capstone

Capstone gives small and midsize businesses that are negatively impacted by Dodd-Frank and other constrictive legislation the working capital needed to seize opportunities for growth. For qualified clients, we provide single invoice factoring, construction factoring and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. Please visit our homepage for more information.

Interest Rates Predicted to Rise - Capstone Explained

U.S. Economy Picking Up Momentum in Q2; Interest Rates Predicted to Rise

19:56 27 May in Blog

Interest Rates Predicted to Rise - Capstone ExplainedAfter another harsh winter, the American economy is stabilizing and beginning to shrug off concerns of a prolonged slowdown or recession.

According to the latest economic gauges, industrial production is increasing, inflation is firming, and the housing sector is continuing to pick up momentum. All of these factors, combined with data reflecting retail sales rebounds, job gains, and rising consumer confidence, point to improved — though still less than spectacular — growth potential for the second quarter of 2016.

Interest Rates

Fed officials afraid of financial market volatility and poorly performing overseas economies have kept a steady hand on short-term interest rates throughout 2016. A domestic growth rebound in Q2 could be just the inspiration they’ve been looking for to raise rates this summer. Their next opportunities come at the policy meetings scheduled for June, July, and September.

John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed, recently told the Wall Street Journal that the data is starting to make a strong case for rate increases not just in June, but potentially more than once in the next few policy meetings.

Despite Positives, Some Forecasters Remain Cautious

First quarter 2016 gross domestic product (GDP) increased only 0.5 percent over Q1 2015, but growth might be poised to accelerate.

Since the end of the recession, Q1 GDP growth has consistently been weak, followed by a rebound in Q2. The latest reports of modest but definite growth in highly important sectors would suggest that the same pattern is about to repeat itself in 2016.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, estimates that GDP will expand at a rate of 2.3 percent this quarter. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated an even higher growth rate of 2.5 percent.

However, it’s not all sunshine and roses. Despite all the positive data starting to roll in, many forecasters are still leery about the economy’s current health as well as its general outlook for the future. Earlier in May, a Wall Street Journal survey of economists revealed an estimated 20 percent chance of a recession taking place in the U.S. sometime in the next 12 months.

Boost Working Capital with Capstone

For qualified clients, we provide purchase order factoring, single invoice factoring and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. To learn more, please visit our homepage.

Businesses Reluctant to Spend - Capstone

Businesses Reluctant to Spend, Report Says

16:57 29 April in Blog

In a time when consumers are holding their funds close and avoiding spending, a recent report found that businesses are being even more cautious. These findings are likely to weigh heavily on Federal Reserve officials as they consider raising the Federal Fund Rate, despite the fact that they recently decided to delay any increase until at least June.

Business Spending Faltering

Aside from orders for aircraft and defense-related goods, business investment declined by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2016. That means that many companies are reluctant to buy staples like electrical appliances, computers, equipment and heavy machinery. These numbers are reflective of a somewhat bleak economic picture: productivity is low, demand is weak at home and abroad, wage growth is weak, and the global economy is experiencing increased volatility as China’s production slows down.

Earnings Season and Poor GDP Growth

On April 28th, the Wall Street Journal’s prediction of 0.7% first-quarter GDP growth was proven incorrect, and the number rung in at just 0.5%. This bad news came in the wake of earnings disappointments for several major U.S. companies—most notably Apple. Some economists are noting that after years of constant growth, the U.S. economy is bound to plateau. The question remains whether this is a broad market correction or the beginning of a prolonged downturn.

Reasons for Optimism?

One bright spot in the economy is the job market, which has posted steady gains over the last several months. Oil and gold prices have rebounded dramatically in the first quarter, though credit for these recoveries can be attributed to a weakening dollar which inflates their value. Though new orders for durable goods would be expected to rise with a weakening dollar, a recent Commerce Department report found that new orders rose just 0.8% in March—the majority of which were for aircraft and defense-related goods.

Increase Working Capital with Capstone

For qualified clients, we provide the single invoice and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable factoring. To learn more, please visit our homepage.

Sluggish Start Becoming a Pattern for U.S. Economy - Capstone Financing

Sluggish Start Becoming a Pattern for U.S. Economy

18:45 15 April in Blog

Sluggish Start Becoming a Pattern for U.S. Economy - Capstone FinancingThe U.S. economy’s sluggish start to the year is validating the wait-and-see approach the Federal Reserve has taken with raising interest rates.

Business investments, constrained by falling corporate profits and diminishing exports, and held back by the strong dollar, have both played their role in the disappointing start to 2016.

Spending-cautious American households are doing their part to stymie growth. According to figures released by the Commerce Department, retail sales dropped 0.3 percent in March. It was the third straight month without gains in retail spending.

Is This Just a Typical Slow Start?

It’s not uncommon for the American economy to lag behind projections in the first quarter of the year. Gross domestic product (GDP), one of the key measurements of overall economic success, either fell or grew at disappointing rates in both 2014 and 2015. Second, third, and fourth quarters brought much better returns the last two years, and many expect the same to happen in 2016.

Forecasts for the Rest of 2016

GDP forecasters believe the economy will resume recovery throughout the rest of 2016, but growth rates are not expected to be strong. J.P. Morgan Chase has predicted a growth rate of 0.2 percent, while Nomura says 0.7 percent and Macroeconomic Advisers 0.9%.

Following a 1.4 percent growth rate in the closing month of 2015, which itself was viewed as a disappointing figure at the time, Fed officials are likely to remain on the cautious path they’ve already been traveling with interest rates.

In December, the central bank raised the benchmark rate for the first time in nearly 10 years. They have stopped short of further changes due to financial market volatility and global uncertainty. These external forces play a bigger role than domestic economic growth in affecting the central bank’s decisions moving forward.

Some Positive Indicators

The labor market has been one source of good news for the economy. Directly following a lull, more than 1.5 million jobs were added over the past six months.

Boost Working Capital with Capstone

For qualified clients, we provide business funding solutionssingle invoice factoring and full-contract factoring for work performed under contract with credit-worthy accounts. We have highly experienced professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of work in progress and progress billing-related accounts receivable. To learn more, please visit our homepage.

Action on Climate Change Boosts NY Construction - Scope explained by Capstone

Action on Climate Change Boosts NY Construction

21:33 15 March in Blog

Action on Climate Change Boosts NY Construction - Scope explained by CapstoneNew York State has experienced much warmer temperatures over the past thirty to forty years, and the sea level along New York’s coast has increased about 12 inches over the past 100 years. Though past trends do not necessarily predict future trends, New York officials are indicating with their investments that a real threat exists.

The threat of rising sea levels has stimulated construction and infrastructure investment across the world, but nowhere has that investment been greater than in New York. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal cited a University College of London study that found New York City outspends all other megacities in countermeasures to rising sea levels, with $2.2 billion alone in the last year.

The predicted challenges of climate change would affect many sectors including water, energy, communication, and transportation—and this means that New York construction firms, contractors, and subcontractors would be a key part of the solution.

Infrastructure Challenges and Construction Opportunities in New York

The Responding to Climate Change in New York State report (ClimAID) published in 2014 identifies numerous transportation, water, and architectural challenges that could impact New York. It also identifies solutions to these challenges—and all of them suggest a significant increase in construction investment in the coming years.

Infrastructure Challenges

• Increased strain on road surface materials
• Stress on electricity grid
• Delays in railroad schedules
• Sagging of large bridges
• Decreased clearance on waterway bridges
• Traffic and public transportation delays
• Reduced building lifespan
• Increased impact of ships and barges

Construction Opportunities

• Convert water managers to handle large variability
• Install more pumps, water tanks, and filters for water supply systems
• Install leak detection systems, low-flow devices, and rainwater harvesting systems
• Upgrade combined sewer and stormwater systems
• Relocate aging infrastructure out of flood-prone areas and construct levees and berms
• Replace old transformers and wiring with heat-resistant models
• Increase seat length of expansion joints on bridges and lengthen airport runways
• Increase capacity of drainage systems and culverts
• Invest in permeable road surfaces and regrade slopes to direct runoff away from roads and tunnels
• Move communication cables underground

What Does it Mean for You?

New York is directing around $20 billion of local, state and federal funding to complete numerous long-term construction projects designed to mitigate the effects of climate change. Half of that money will go to coastal protection and urban drainage projects, which means huge opportunities are on the horizon for general contractors and subcontractors.

Single Invoice Factoring for Qualified Subcontractors

For qualified subcontractors, Capstone provides single invoice factoring for work performed under contract with a creditworthy general contractor. Capstone has highly experienced construction professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of construction-related accounts receivable. For more information, read our blog, visit Capstone Capital Group homepage, or contact us today.

Revised GDP Figures - Capstone Financing

Late 2015 Slump Turns into January Boost for American GDP

18:58 29 February in Blog

Revised GDP Figures - Capstone FinancingBetween plummeting oil prices and a global growth slowdown, the United States economy ended 2015 with a dip — but January’s spending figures and new data on the previous quarter suggest that American consumers are brushing off the jitters. This is heartening news for small businesses and large financial entities alike, with indications that the manufacturing sector and overall economic landscape could be on the mend.

Revised GDP Figures

Friday, February 26 brought a double dose of good news for the financial market. The Commerce Department provided revised figures for the last three months of 2015, suggesting that fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was stronger than original reports. The revision came about through revelations that business stockpiling — holding back key inventory items in order to mitigate potential economic downturn — was lower than expected. While this is a positive outcome for the end of 2015, analysts from the Wall Street Journal expect that the accumulation could hamper first-quarter 2016 growth as businesses work their way through currently-substantial stockpiles.

GDP is widely considered to be the broadest metric of economic strength. The initial figures for Q4 2015 put its growth at .7% — a fraction of Q3’s 2% jump — but the Commerce Department has since revised that figure to a solid 1%. The same report confirmed that investments in trade and business were a critical drag factor on the economy, affected by overall global weakness.

A Promising Start to the New Year

The biggest news for businesses, however, is the roaring activity in overall consumer spending. A boosted job market and strong gains in wage levels appear to have stimulated American’s willingness to spend, with figures at their highest level in eight months. Consumer spending accounts for a whopping two-thirds of economic activity, and experts across the financial landscape are predicting that this gain will provide a significant boost to cross-sector economic growth.

January brought good news for other key indicators as well, with home purchases, retail sale levels, and big-ticket good orders all making a significant jump.

Looking to the Future: Inflation and Interest

The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring inflation rises through 2016 in order to determine interest rate increases for the year. Inflation is a key price measure that the Fed uses to decide central banking interest rates.

The Fed typically sets its inflation target at 2% per year, but has not met that goal since 2012. However, the February 26 release stated that it is currently at 1.3% — higher than they expected it to be at the end of 2016 — indicating that the economy is now resilient enough that the central bank can step back from supporting spending and investment initiatives.

Single Invoice Factoring for Qualified Subcontractors

For qualified subcontractors, Capstone provides single invoice factoring for work performed under contract with a creditworthy general contractor. Capstone has highly experienced construction professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of construction-related accounts receivable. For more information on small business funding, Purchase Order Funding, read our blog, visit our homepage, or contact us today.

Capstone Predicts Recession Risk Growing

Economists and CEOs Agree: Recession Risk Growing

20:19 15 February in Blog

Capstone Predicts Recession Risk GrowingAn increasing number of economists and corporate leaders say the risk of the U.S. dipping into a recession is rising. More than anything, they have pointed to the global growth slowdown and convulsions in financial markets.

According to the Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of economists, the average estimate of odds of a recession starting in the next twelve months jumped to 21%—double the count from a year ago and the highest since 2012. Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch place the chances even higher at 25%.

Despite positive marks in many economic indicators, deteriorating U.S. confidence reflects concerns about slumping foreign economies.

Fed Chairwoman Testimony

In recent testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the central bank is monitoring global financial markets, but reiterated her opinion that an economic contraction is not imminent. She emphasized that the Fed is keeping a flexible outlook on interest rate changes, but recent developments have not downwardly shifted the risk balance.

Business Concerns

The overall sag in financial markets, however, is feeding into concerns from business leaders. Despite a quarterly profit surge, PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi cautioned of a “delicate” recovery. Cisco Systems CEO Chuck Robbins said some corporate customers have started halting non-essential purchases.

Market and corporate sentiment have slid recently, and some, but not all, economic indicators have followed suit. Decreases in both oil drilling and output from utilities have prompted the decline of industrial production, and employment in the oil sector has slipped sharply. A similar decline in energy production, coupled with a strong American dollar, has put pressure on manufacturers. Factory activity decreased in January for the fourth straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

Positive Signs

On the contrary, household spending continues its rise, up 3.2%. While incomes have grown slowly, the dive in gas prices means incomes are outpacing inflation. Labor market barometers show healthy readings, including the 4.9% unemployment rate, down from 5.7% a year ago, and the underemployment rate which has fallen to 9.9% from 11.3%.

Economic activity has remained stable despite market turbulence, according to Ram Bhagavatula, an economist at Combinatorics Capital, a hedge fund. The evident disparity presents a conundrum for the Fed, which projects continued modest economic growth and gradual increases in interest rates and inflation. The Fed will have more to say about its growth outlook after its next policy meeting in mid-March, but it is paying attention to foreign economic developments that pose risks to U.S. growth.

By historical standards, the current economic expansion has lasted a long time. Since World War II, the average economic expansions have lasted for just under six years. The current expansion, beginning in June 2009, is now over 6.5 years old.

Capitalize on Growth with Capstone

Whether we’re simply seeing a market correction or a full-fledged recession, Capstone is here to help. We help businesses and subcontractors take advantage of opportunities for growth with diverse business funding and financing options. For qualified subcontractors, Capstone provides single invoice factoring for work performed under contract with a creditworthy general contractor. Capstone has highly experienced construction professionals on staff to facilitate the purchase of construction-related accounts receivable. For more information, read our blog, visit our Capstone Capital Group homepage, or contact us today.

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